Geology, geography and global energy

Scientific and Technical Journal

RELIABILITY OF HYDROGEOLOGICAL FORECASTS IN THE ZONES OF INFLUENCE OF RESERVOIRS

2019. №4, pp. 99-106

Lyubimova Tatyana V. - Ph. D. in Geology and Mineralogy, Associate Professor, Kuban State University, 149 Stavropolskaya St., Krasnodar, 350040, Russian Federation, TV-Luy@yandex.ru

The forecast of the mode of underground waters are of great importance at the solution of questions of planning, design and operation of various engineering constructions. Need of studying of ground waters in close proximity of the Krasnodar reservoir is defined by existence of settlements and agricultural grounds here, and development of processes of flooding is one of the main negative consequences of construction of a reservoir. The total area of flooding on the Republic of Adygea is 11.8 thousand hectares. Results of comparison annual, 3, 5 and 10-year expected ground water levels determined as Markov process with actual are given in article. The research of a possibility of application of chains of Markov in the hydrogeological purposes is the purpose of this work. Results of monitoring of the observation wells located on the southern coast of the Krasnodar reservoir formed a basis of work. Their comparison with recorded during the same period became result of expected calculations. The analysis of wrong forecasts, their communication with rezhimoobrazuyushchy factors is provided. The efficiency of the forecast for territories with the broken hydrogeological mode was as a result defined.

Key words: прогнозирование, уровень грунтовых вод, вероятностно-статистические прогноз, марковский процесс, Краснодарское водохранилище, forecasting, ground water level, probabilistic and statistical forecast, Markov process, Krasnodar reservoir

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