Geology, geography and global energy

Scientific and Technical Journal

Avalanche and mudflow danger of West Caucasus and trends of changes with a climate change

2014. №2, pp. 114-129

Efremov Yuriy V. - D.Sc. in Geography, Professor, Kuban state university, 149 Stavropolskaya st., Krasnodar, 350040, Russian Federation,

Schumakova Alena A. - Post-graduate student, Kuban state university, 149 Stavropolskaya st., Krasnodar, 350040, Russian Federation,

Justification of avalanch and mudflow danger and a tendency of its change to regions of Western Caucasus is made. in these regions holding the Winter Olympic Games and other sporting and recreational events is planned. An air temperature, atmospheric precipitation and snow cover is analyzed. Average annual air temperature increased for 1971-2010 on 0,35 В°C. Its greatest increase on 0,9 В°C the page is registered on a Psebay meteorological station. The annual sum of an atmospheric precipitation for 1977-2007 increased on the average by 103 mm, or for 9,1 %. During all seasons of year in all considered territory there was the increase in an atmospheric precipitation reaching the greatest sizes in the fall. The number of days with snow cover was reduced by 10-15% at the heights of 2000-2500 m and increased at more considerable heights. Linear trends changed on MS the Klukhorsky pass of 0,036 days/year, MS Krasnaya Polyana - 0,60 of days year and MS Mountain - 0,27 days/year, i.e. for 1971-2010 the number of days with snow cover on a northern slope of Western Caucasus was reduced by 1,4 days a year, and on southern one for 24 days a year. On MS Gornay (the pass Goytkh), located in the Northwest Caucasus at the height of 325 m, the number of days with snow cover was reduced by 11 days. Strengthening of avalanche activity at the heights more than 2000 m and reduction at low heights is established. The attention is focused on weak study of mudflow processes. In recent years in connection with increase in the average annual sum of an atmospheric precipitation and the increased anthropogenous influence on environment mudflow activity considerably increased. The number of catastrophic mudflows and high waters which were accompanied by large destructions and loss of human life increased. Mudflow danger increase in Mzymta the river basin - a mountain cluster of the Winter Olympic Games of Sochi 2014 of in a consequence of deforestation and violation of stability of hillsides when building numerous objects is especially noticeable.

Key words: лавина, селевой поток, атмосферные осадки, снежный покров, температура воздуха, линейный тренд, изменение климата, лавинная опасность, селевая угроза, avalanche, mud stream, atmospheric precipitation, snow cover, air temperature, linear trend, climate cha