Geology, geography and global energy

Scientific and Technical Journal

Long-term dynamics and variability of rivers runoff the basins of the Belaya and Ural rivers of the Republic of Bashkortostan

2018. №2, pp. 136-143

Galiullina Yu.V. - post-graduate student, Bashkir state University, 3/4 Karl Marx st., Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, 450076, Russian Federation, Uliya1406@yandex.ru

The article considers the main features of formation, variability and dynamics of river flow along the Belaya and Ural river basins within the Republic of Bashkortostan. The methodology of the study is based on the systematization and analysis of long-term series of observations for maximum, minimum (summer-autumn) and annual water discharge. To analyze the cyclic structure of long-term flow fluctuations, the method of constructing difference-integral curves and 5-year moving averages was used in the study area. On the basis of the data obtained, low-water and high-water phases have been identified, as well as complete cycles of changes in water content over the entire observation period. An analysis of the synchrony or asynchrony of the runoff is given for the study areas. As a result of the data obtained, a preliminary forecast of the change in runoff for subsequent years was drawn up for scientific and practical purposes. To assess the impact of global climate change on the river runoff, the growth curves for each individual river basin have been constructed. Relative and absolute indicators of changes in river flow for the disturbed period of natural runoff are calculated and the corresponding conclusions are presented.

Key words: многоводная фаза, маловодная фаза, разностно-интегральная кривая, цикличность, максимальный сток, минимальный сток, годовой сток, кривая нарастающих сумм, абсолютные и относительные изменения речного стока, high-water phase, low-water phase, difference-in

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