Geology, geography and global energy

Scientific and Technical Journal


2019. №1, pp. 57-68

Tatarintsev Sergey A. - Senior Lecturer, Astrakhan State University,

Barmin Aleksandr N. - D.Sc. in Geography, Professor, Astrakhan State University,

Kolchin Yevgeniy A. - C.Sc. in Geography, Associate Professor, Astrakhan State University,

Yemelshin Aleksandr D. - master student, Associate Professor, Astrakhan State University,

The process of life contains many different hazards that can pose a threat to both humans and the environment. Currently, with the development of science-intensive technologies, the problems of hazards become global. With the development of system studies, the consideration of individual objects (factors) and a set of objects (factors) is reduced to presenting them in the form of systems, i.e. a system approach. Astrakhan region is characterized by the presence of a significant number of production facilities, housing and communal facilities and hydraulic structures, as well as a developed network of roads and Railways, which determine the socio-economic potential of the region and can become sources of man-made accidents. Involvement of all new territories of the region in economic development, a large deterioration of production assets of hazardous facilities, the weakening of production, technological and security discipline only increase the likelihood of man-made accidents in the Astrakhan region and lead to emergency situations of man-made, accompanied by damage to the economy of the region, and often human casualties. On the territory of the Astrakhan region there has been a trend of annual reduction in the number of emergencies, accidents at production facilities and life support facilities, as well as fires, but the magnitude and severity of the damage caused by them are increasing, which leads to huge financial costs for the elimination of these consequences and has a negative impact on the socio-economic and environmental development of the region. All of the above dictates the need to assess the risk of man-made hazards, taking into account the administrative-territorial division of the region. The article presents a formalized apparatus for assessing the technogenic danger of the territory, as well as an assessment of the risk of technogenic hazards in the Astrakhan region on the basis of its physical and geographical features.

Key words: техногенная опасность, Астраханская область, оценка риска, чрезвычайная ситуация, источник опасности, население, транспорт, анализ, теория нечетких множеств, системный подход, моделирование, man-made danger, Astrakhan region, risk assessment, emergency si